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The 1 Bitcoin Chart They Don’t Want You To See
A market analyst, identifying as a "bitcoin vari" rather than a perma-bear, asserts that Bitcoin is still heading for a bottom between $30,000 and $40,000. The analyst, who claims a history of accurate predictions for Bitcoin's price movements, highlights significant headwinds facing the cryptocurrency. Chief among these is its widespread use by U.S. adversaries for illicit transactions and sanctions evasion, citing examples like Iran and North Korea. This illicit utility could prompt the U.S. to adopt a less permissive stance, potentially removing Bitcoin's largest use case. While not predicting zero value, the analyst warns that these factors could reverse Bitcoin's historical four-year appreciation cycle, urging investors to be aware of these critical risks.
Bitcoin bottom countdown nears 50 days after BTC supply in loss passed 50%
Bitcoin (BTC) has been counting down to its next bottom for nearly two months, a classic onchain metric suggests.
In its H1 2026 Round-Up report, crypto research company K33 Research flagged more than 50% of the BTC supply now being held at a loss.
A typical bear-market feature, supply in loss has become a yardstick for progress toward macro bottoms for BTCUSD.
K33 data shows that once supply in loss passes the 50% mark, the bottom has come no more than 101 days later. Bear markets have provided various time frames, with the shortest bottom “window” lasting just 13 days in 2022.
The 2018 bear market required 23 days to reach its floor, while in 2014, Bitcoin continued to decline for 101 days after the 50% supply-in-loss mark was hit.
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3 reasons Bitcoin is stuck in a bear market—and why one analyst predicts a rebound to $100,000 by year-end
Bitcoin has seen better days. In October, the world’s largest cryptocurrency plummeted—and it hasn’t recovered, trading at around half of its all-time high of $126,000. Despite brief glimmers of upward momentum, the token continues to tread water amid a deep bear market.
The last time Bitcoin experienced such a prolonged drop was in 2022, when several of crypto’s largest players—including the crypto exchange FTX—collapsed and brought the digital assets market down with them. That period saw Bitcoin plunge 76% from its then–all-time high in 2021 to $16,000 in 2022.
In 2026, the backdrop is different. President Donald Trump has become one of the industry’s biggest boosters, and Wall Street titans like BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase are announcing blockchain-based products left and right. So, why is Bitcoin tanking?
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