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Tracking the NFL playoff picture: Updated chances to clinch open spots, win division titles
ESPN Analytics' live NFL playoff chances — which combine current in-game win probabilities with our
Football Power Index (FPI) season projections — provide each team's postseason likelihood at any given moment throughout the entire
Week 17
and
Week 18
slates. The projected
final standings
will update regularly, and we're also tracking a few tight postseason races and the projected
2026 draft order for non-playoff teams. See how things stack up in both conferences throughout every game for the rest of the regular
season.
With two weeks left in the season, there are still three playoff spots
(two in the AFC, one in the NFC) and seven division titles there for the taking. The
Broncos,
Patriots, Jaguars, Bills, Chargers, Eagles,
Seahawks,
Rams,
Bears,
49ers and Packers have secured playoff berths. The No. 1
seed hasn't been clinched in either conference.
NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 17 of the 2025 season
Entering Week 17 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri, with major assists from Special Projects Lead Tom Blair and Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade, digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds. For more context around terms like "If win," "If lose" and "playoff leverage" click here.
NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 1:45 p.m. ET on Dec. 23 unless otherwise noted below.
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