San Andreas Fault stress hits 1,000-year high, raising quake risk | California’s tectonic stress …

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San Andreas Fault stress hits 1,000-year high, raising quake risk

Tectonic stress along Southern California’s San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems has reached — and in some areas exceeded — the highest levels seen in the past 1,000 years, according to new research led by Earth scientists at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa.

Researchers say the system is not showing signs of an imminent rupture, but is operating under unusually high stress in a long-term seismic cycle that could support large earthquakes, including multi-fault events.

The study, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, suggests the region is in a “critically loaded state,” with stress building across multiple fault segments. One key area of focus is Cajon Pass, a junction between the two fault systems that may act as an “earthquake gate,” either blocking ruptures from crossing between faults or allowing them to link into a single larger event.

California's tectonic stress has reached record level, earthquake model reveals

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Earthquakes usually occur along fracture zones in Earth's crust, where large tectonic plates slide past one another and become locked. Stress builds up over long periods and is suddenly released in the form of an earthquake. In Southern California, the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults are among the most significant of these zones, accommodating most of the plate motion in the region.

Where the two fault systems approach each other northeast of Los Angeles lies the Cajon Pass—a tectonically complex junction where a rupture on one fault could potentially cross onto the other. Since the last major earthquake to affect the wider Los Angeles region, the Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857, with a magnitude of 7.9, tectonic stress along the fault segments has built up continuously during a prolonged quiet period that has long concerned researchers, given the potential for a large future rupture.

San Andreas fault reaches highest stress level in 1,000 years

Recent research led by University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa scientists found tectonic stress along the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems in Southern California has reached — in some places exceeded — the highest levels seen in the past 1,000 years.

The study, recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, has direct implications for seismic hazard assessments in one of the most densely populated and infrastructure-critical corridors in the United States.

“Our results show that stress levels on multiple fault segments are now at or above the highest values seen in the past millennium and that the region may be capable of a large through-going rupture involving both fault systems,” said lead author Liliane Burkhard in a press release.

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