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Thank El Niño for NOAA’s latest forecast for Atlantic hurricane season
Time is ticking down to the June 1 start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationâs first forecast for it is finalized.
NOAAâs team of experts is predicting a below-average hurricane season, similar to other expertsâ forecasts in recent weeks. The anticipated return of El Niño â and its potential to become historically strong â is a major driving force behind the outlook.
Overall, NOAA says this season has a 55% chance of being a below-average hurricane season with 35% and 10% chances of near-average and above-average seasons, respectively.
Between eight and 14 total named storms â that means tropical storms and hurricanes â are expected in the basin from June 1 through November 30, when the season ends.
NOAA's 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook predicts 'below-average' season: What you need to know
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday issued its official outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30.
Forecasters are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin, which comprises the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
There’s roughly a 55% chance the season will be below normal, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season, according to the outlook.
NOAA is forecasting a range of eight to 14 total named storms. The federal weather agency assigns a name to a storm when it officially becomes a tropical storm, when its maximum sustained winds reach at least 39 mph. Out of those named storms, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes (maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph or higher), including one to three major hurricanes (considered Category 3, 4 or 5).
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