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Betting on suffering: The moral crisis of prediction markets
An advertisement by the American company Polymarket show Zohran Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo ahead of the New York City mayoral election on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Olga Fedorova)
An advertisement by the American company Polymarket show Zohran Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo ahead of the New York City mayoral election on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Olga Fedorova)
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Prediction market firms could be making $10 billion in yearly revenue by 2030, Citizens Bank says
Growth in prediction markets is surging as traders seek more precise ways to price and hedge discrete events, from elections to rate decisions, without relying on blunt proxy trades.
Prediction markets are running at an annualized revenue rate above $3 billion, up from about $2 billion in December, and could reach $10 billion by 2030, according to a Monday report by U.S. bank Citizens.
The bank cited accelerating volumes, a stronger market structure, and early institutional engagement, saying the trajectory mirrors the early evolution of listed derivatives and digital assets.
"We continue to view ~$10 billion of annual industry revenue by 2030 as a reasonable medium-term waypoint rather than an end state," wrote analysts led by Devin Ryan.
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