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17 men's college basketball teams that could win 30 games in 2025-26
Myron Medcalf breaks down some of the teams to look out for ahead of the 2025-26 men's college basketball season. (1:02)
Preseason rankings are a great glimpse of a college basketball season ahead. But we can only measure what we see right now. And that lens is limited.
Over the next five months, however, some of the top teams in the country — and a couple of mid-majors — will hit a mark that might be more indicative of a team's ceiling: 30 wins.
Since 2013-14 — and we're eliminating the 2019-20 season that ended without an NCAA tournament as well as the 2020-21 campaign that featured imbalanced schedules due to the pandemic — seven of the 10 national champions had won at least 28 games by the time they reached Selection Sunday. Ninety-three teams reached the 30-win mark by the end of those respective seasons in that stretch, too.
College basketball national title contenders by tiers: These teams can cut down the nets in April
I am positive that you are going to be scrolling TikTok next March and stumble upon a content creator who believes they have the perfect formula to predict the National Championship winner.
I am positive they will start naming the teams that rate inside the top 20 nationally in offensive efficiency and top 20 in defensive efficiency. Or the top 40 in offense and top 22 in defense. Or whatever formula they prefer.
I am also positive that they are wrong. The magic wands have been exposed, most notably by the great Will Warren, for perusing KenPom's data after the NCAA Tournament, not before. Champions like 2015 Duke, 2017 North Carolina, 2018 Villanova, 2021 Baylor and 2022 Kansas all proved that you could win a National Championship with a defense that ranked outside the top-20 entering the Big Dance, much to the chagrin of the 20/20 club or 40/22 cult.
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68 men's college basketball predictions: Cinderella isn’t dead but she’s in danger
The men’s college basketball season tips off Monday night with 20 of the AP’s preseason Top 25 teams in action. To celebrate the start of the new season, here are 68 bold predictions that are sure to come true (unless they don’t).
1. Cinderella isn’t dead but she’s in danger. The disparity between high-majors and the rest of college basketball will continue to grow wider this season. Between soaring NIL payments and rule changes allowing unlimited transfers, talent has concentrated at the power-conference level as small-conference programs have increasingly become a farm system. In Evan Miyakawa’s preseason rankings for example, the conference strength drop from the Big East to the Atlantic 10 is larger than the gap between conferences No. 6 and No. 17.
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