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Battle for the AL Central: Breaking down an improbable Guardians comeback and epic Tigers collapse
If the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians had been going toe-to-toe for the lead in American League Central all season long, this would be viewed as a fun division race between two scrappy-if-flawed teams.
But timing is everything — and that's not how each team's wins and losses unfolded.
Instead, we get the much more intriguing storyline of the Guardians surging to a miracle comeback to make the playoffs and the Tigers trying to avoid an epic collapse.
In early July, after the Tigers swept the Guardians, Cleveland trailed Detroit by 15½ games in the division race. No team has ever won a division title or pennant after a deficit that large. On July 8, Cleveland's odds of winning the division were a minuscule 0.1%, according to FanGraphs. At the time, the Tigers were 59-34, the best record in the majors.
Guardians score vs. Tigers | Live updates as Cleveland, Detroit open AL Central showdown
CLEVELAND — The biggest game of the season to date is Tuesday, Sept. 23 at Progressive Field.
The Guardians, who have had wild September in which they've won 15 of their last 17 games, enter Sept. 23 just a game back of the Detroit Tigers in the American League Central.
Because the Guardians would currently hold the tiebreaker, the winner of Tuesday's game will be in the driver's seat for the division over the final five days of the regular season. The Guardians are also in a four-way battle for the three wild card spots.
The Tigers are throwing ace Tarik Skubal. The Guardians are countering with Gavin Williams. And a mammoth matchup awaits.
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Remembering the 10 worst late-season collapses in MLB history as 2025 Tigers and Mets threaten to join list
As observers of Major League Baseball final scores, standings, and generalized fan anxiety are probably aware — acutely aware, in some cases — the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets are presently enduring collapses of varying degrees.
The "greatest" of these is of course the Tigers. As recently as July 9, they held a 14-game lead in the American League Central. The Cleveland Guardians, though, have whittled away at that once-massive deficit, and of late they've made up serious ground. That's because the Guards going into Tuesday's full slate of games are 16-4 in September. At the same time, the Tigers are just 5-13 this month. In large measure because of those dueling recent trends, that 14-game lead is down to one. There are collapses, and then there are core-reactor meltdowns. The 2025 AL Central race is potentially an example of the latter.
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