Investor Fear Spikes Ahead Of Midterms. It May Not Be So Bad For Stocks. | Wall Street’s Fear Ind…


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Investor Fear Spikes Ahead Of Midterms. It May Not Be So Bad For Stocks.

The stock market's fear gauge just spiked to the highest level since June — a reflection of growing investor anxiety ahead of the midterm elections but also a sign of hope. The Cboe Market Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, surged as high as 23.93 Friday, the highest it's been since it reached 22.66 on June 10. It remained…

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10/13/2025
The stock market's so-called fear gauge, the VIX, closed at 21.66 Friday. That's the highest close since May 23. It…

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Wall Street's Fear Index is doing something strange. Here's what it means for stocks

Stocks wrapped their worst week since June on Friday, but a group of the most sophisticated options analysts agree the reaction in the options market was oddly calm.  

While the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as a so-called fear index, did touch its highest intraday level since April on Friday, it quickly retreated and closed at 19.4. Its rollover came even as the S&P 500 finished the day down nearly 2%. For that size of a decline in stocks, the 2.2-point move in VIX was "relatively muted," according to SpotGamma's Brent Kochuba, whose analysis suggests VIX should have jumped closer to 2.6 points, based on a study of 126 selloffs since 2018. 

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Discover why it's trending. »

Is a Jumpy VIX Trying to Tell Us Where the Market Is Headed Next?

If we were to analyze the VIX like a stock, we’d be buying it here. And that’s not good for the stock market. Here’s why.

For the last few months, my biggest complaint has been sentiment. I have said it is very complacent. I think last week’s action has taken some of that complacency off the table, but not all of it.

Recall a couple of weeks ago how I explained that the Daily Sentiment Indicator on the VIX was 14, so if the S&P rallied much more, the DSI would fall to single digits. The phrase I used at the time was that it makes the rally’s runway short. I am here to tell you that with the VIX now at 21, the DSI for the VIX is at 37. That’s a much better runway than when it was at 14.

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