Explore the latest developments concerning This Year’s El.
El Niño forecast to reach historic strength ahead of winter 2026–27
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NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has raised the probability of a very strong El Niño during late 2026, increasing the likelihood of characteristic El Niño impacts across the United States during winter 2026–27. Current seasonal guidance favors wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the southern tier and drier conditions across parts of the Northwest and northern United States, while above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the West, northern tier and parts of the East.
Fall outlook: Strengthening El Niño is taking charge of temperature and precipitation patterns
How El Niño will impact how your fall feels this year
Who’s ready for pumpkin carving and dramatically throwing piles of multi-colored leaves into the air in slow motion? I know I am! But what about the weather? Will it be fall-ish and festive or summer 2.0?
Here is what you need to know according to the latest outlook from Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company, covering the upcoming meteorological fall (September through November).
The series of maps below shows the temperature outlooks each month from September through November.
You can see the development of an El-Niño-esque pattern with warmer-than-average conditions spreading across the Northern Tier and cooler air (relative to what’s normal for the region) further south, especially later in the year.
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