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Piper Sandler says Strait of Hormuz to remain closed for months and oil to hit new highs
Piper Sandler isn't buying the talk that an Iran deal is nearing, telling clients that the Strait of Hormuz will largely stay closed and oil will hit new highs.
"We think the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed for months yet, meaning shortages become more urgent and oil hits new highs this Summer," according to a recent note from the investment bank's energy and macro teams.
West Texas Intermediate Futures are down since Friday but bounced back some on Tuesday with mixed messaging on a possible Iran deal over the long weekend. The U.S. military said it conducted "self-defense strikes" in southern Iran, which included targeting Iranian missile launch sites and vessels placing mines around the Strait of Hormuz. The news came after President Donald Trump said Saturday that an agreement with Iran has been "largely negotiated", with details to be announced shortly. Meanwhile, Iran's foreign ministry has said navigation through the vital shipping channel "will have costs."
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The global oil market is running out of options: 'You cannot print molecules'
The global oil market is running out of options to keep prices from rising to new heights, experts say, with physical deadlines quickly approaching.
Since Iran began disrupting transit through the Strait of Hormuz shortly after the US and Israel began an airstrike campaign in late February, the global oil market has lost roughly 1 billion barrels of oil, per IEA data.
Even with pipelines running through Saudi Arabia and the UAE to reroute oil around the waterway, the market continues to lose an additional 14 million barrels a day while the strait is closed, according to data from JPMorgan. Yet prices have remained contained around $100 per barrel as investors look for quick resolution.
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