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Fears of an AI Bubble Are Growing. Should SMH Investors Be Worried?
Artificial intelligence (AI) has been growing by leaps and bounds, fueling the growth of many companies, such as those that build or run the data centers housing the technology to run AI processes. Some are worrying this growth in AI is a bubble — and one that will burst one day, taking down semiconductor stocks with it.
Investors in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SMH) may worry, too, as the ETF (and others like it) is entirely invested in semiconductor companies. Here's a look at whether the concern is warranted.
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Cisco's John Chambers lived through the dot-com crash. He says the AI bubble is harder to navigate
Good morning. Are we in a stock market bubble? If you go by the so-called Buffett Indicator, as my colleague Shawn Tully reminded readers in this piece yesterday, the answer is yes. The ratio of total stock market capitalization to GDP now stands at 232%, exceeding 1999 levels and the 200% threshold where Buffett said investors were “playing with fire.”
But is today’s bubble comparable to what we saw during the dot-com boom from 1995 to 2000? For insight on that, I spoke yesterday with John Chambers, who was CEO of Cisco from 1995 to 2015. Under his watch, it became the most valuable company on earth, with a market cap of $576 billion in March 2000, dropping to a low of around $60 billion by October 2002. Today, it’s around $340 billion. For almost a decade, Chambers has bet big on AI through JC2 Ventures and continues to advise founders, government leaders, and CEOs on market trends. (I co-wrote a book with him and find his annual tech predictions prescient.) His take:
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VanEck Flags Semiconductor Stocks as Key AI Infrastructure Plays for 2026
Asset manager VanEck highlights semiconductor companies as critical AI investment opportunities as the industry shifts from experimentation to infrastructure.
VanEck is directing investor attention toward semiconductor companies as artificial intelligence transitions from experimental technology to core infrastructure, according to a new analysis from the asset manager published April 20.
The firm's thematic investing team argues that the real money in AI won't flow primarily to model buildersâit'll go to the companies supplying the compute power. That means chipmakers, not chatbot developers, deserve the spotlight.
"AI is moving from experimentation to infrastructure," VanEck analyst Nick Frasse wrote. "For investors, that means watching not just model builders, but the semiconductor companies supplying the compute behind the shift."
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