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Ranking 8 most likely March Madness upsets in NCAA Tournament first round
There’s nothing — not even the champion who cuts down the nets on the first Monday night of April — that defines the Men’s NCAA basketball Tournament quite like an upset.
The 68-team event is designed to set aside spots for teams from the smallest schools and conferences in the sport and give them an opportunity to take on some of college basketball’s biggest juggernauts on the brightest stage the sport has to offer.
While a healthy percentage of those games are blowouts, others produce the kinds of results and moments that are only possible in March Madness. Over these next three weeks, Cinderella stories will be crafted and unlikely heroes will emerge.
Most probable first-round upsets in the men's 2026 NCAA tournament
Only five double-digit seeds won in the first round of the 2025 men's NCAA tournament, and two were 10-seeds, which don't qualify as Giant Killers for the purposes of this column. The Elite Eight was tied for the chalkiest of all time — all top-three seeds or better — and the Final Four was just the second ever to feature four 1-seeds.
But we know that part of what makes March Madness so fun is the upsets and trying to identify them before they happen.
To find this year's potential candidates, we consulted ESPN's BPI projections to find the matchups with the highest upset probabilities. Just keep in mind that probability does not mean predictability when filling out your brackets. And the probability of there being multiple upsets this March is low. NCAA tournament betting lines are larger than ever, and our Giant Killer model doesn't give any team seeded 11th or worse even a 40% chance of winning in the first round. It gives only one No. 12 seed — the perennial upset pick so many like to identify — even a 20% chance to bust brackets.
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From The Sports Desk: Bracket-busting teams to watch
Now that we’ve had a full day to digest the March Madness brackets, let’s dive in further. Today, we’ll walk you through some potential upsets because everyone loves a Cinderella story. Our Andrew Greif also caught up with Georgetown legend Patrick Ewing, who shared his favorite March Madness memories.
Plus, tonight Team USA takes on Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic final. We’ll be live-blogging the game, so come back for our real-time analysis at NBC News.
In the men’s bracket, chaos typically reigns supreme in the first weekend. Here are three double-digit-seeded teams that could pull off an upset or two this week:
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