NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 13 of the 2025 season | NFL Playoff S…

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NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 13 of the 2025 season

Entering Week 13 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds. For more context around terms like "If win," "If lose" and "playoff leverage" click here.

NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 25 unless otherwise noted below.

(Teams that have been mathematically eliminated from their divisional races are not included below.)

NFL Playoff Simulator: Which Week 13 games have biggest impact on postseason races, No. 1 draft pick chances?

The Jaguars can give their playoff odds a significant boost by beating the lowly Titans. Norm Hall / Getty Images

Three Thanksgiving Day upsets complicated the playoff paths for teams that entered the season as heavyweights (Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions). Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals took their first step toward a complete turnaround with the return of quarterback Joe Burrow.

With cold-weather football officially here, teams in the playoff picture are looking to solidify their chances. And NFL Draft positioning is up for grabs for teams on the opposite end of the postseason race.

Here’s a look at some of the biggest swing games in Week 13, using data from The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator.

NFL playoff picture Week 13: Can Steelers stay atop AFC North?

Every week for the duration of the 2025 regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the NFL's ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting Sunday afternoon and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday's and Thursday's games or Saturday's, if applicable. And, when the holidays roll around, we'll be watching then, too).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference's seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 4.

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